Georges proves a model foe for disaster planners

The complex storm poses threats similar to the worst-case scenarios that emergency officials encounter in practice sessions.

By JULIE HAUSERMAN

© St. Petersburg Times, published September 25, 1998

ALLAHASSEE -- For Florida's disaster planners, Hurricane Georges is a worst-case scenario -- even if it never hits land.

The storm is wide, unpredictable and headed for the most crowded part of the nation's fourth-largest state.

Deciding who needs to get out of the way -- and when -- is tricky business.

"This is probably one of the most complex ones I've been involved in during my career," said Joe Myers, director of Florida's Division of Emergency Management.

In fact, Myers said, Georges is a lot like the pretend storms they use in exercises to prepare state officials for a worst-case evacuation.

"This storm has been like a windshield wiper -- it's moved to the east; it's moved to the west. Just a slight jog could impact the population that has to be evacuated."

In fact, the state could be looking at moving millions of people, depending on where Georges goes. Eighty percent of Florida's 14-million residents live along the coast.

"The complexity is that, once we complete the evacuations in South Florida, it's a delicate balancing act to do more potential evacuations on the west coast and in the Panhandle," Myers said.

"The thing we've got to keep in mind is the inland counties -- everybody is within 100 miles of the coast," he said.

That means the planners in Tallahassee spend hours on the phone with local emergency officials, many of them sitting in counties far away from the whirling mass at Florida's tip.

"Don't focus on just the track of this storm," warned Craig Fugate, who heads the state's emergency response team. "We are concerned about widespread flooding and tornadoes statewide."

At the state's Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee on Thursday, the pressure was on for Andy Devanas, the state meteorologist.

All day, everyone wanted to know the same thing: Where will Georges go? Devanas had the answer -- to a point.

"When you get out beyond 72 hours (forecasting), you start turning from science to science fiction," he said.

What is Devanas' best-case scenario?

"The best case is it heads westward into the gulf, away from the state of Florida, and goes toward Louisiana," Devanas said, admitting that the scenario would be "unfortunate for the people of Louisiana."